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Why did Burr win?
Strong Partisan History: North Carolina's history of voting Republican in federal elections provides one explanation for Burr's victory. Republicans have won 75% of the U.S. senatorial seats since 1972 and NC has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968, except for Carter in 1976. Endorsments from prominent Republicans like former Senator Jesse Helms and current Senator Elizabeth Dole attempted in ads to reinforce partisanship, a strong factor in voting behavior (Robertson, 10/25). However, 46.8% of registered voters are Democrats, compared to 34.5% Republicans, leaving 18.5% unaffiliated (NCSBE, 2004). A CNN exit poll, though, suggests Burr captured slightly more of the independents, and even 11% of Democrats. This poll suggests ideology impacts voters more than partisan identification.
Riding Presidential Coattails: Another explanation credits President Bush's name and campaign specifically with bringing more conservative voters to the polls this year. The president’s 14 point win over Kerry in NC shows Bush's popularity. "More than half of North Carolina voters said they approved of the way George W. Bush was handling his job as president, and those same voters sided with Burr by a 9-to-1 margin" (Dalesio, Bush tide, 2004). Burr closely associated himself with values and gay marraige during the campaign (Hunt, 10/14). Bowles pointed out Burr's Pro-Bush record in House – 96% Presidential support (CQ). However, pressing the linkage of Burr with President Bush probably encouraging many conservatives to turn out.
Ethical Compromise? Changing free trade positions in pursuit of NC
Both candidates reconsidered their positions on free trade in attempts to win the people of NC, hard-hit by the decline of the textile industry in the last ten years. Both candidates pointed fingers at the other's inconsistencies in support of the North American Free Trade Agreement and trade agreements in general.
According to Burr, Bowles helped lobby for NAFTA as head of President Clinton's Small Business Administration. The Clinton administration also granted China normal trade relation status, though Bowles' role in that action is debated. Bowles said "Richard and I both have a history on trade...Times have changed. I think I've figured it out. I don't think Richard has." Bowles' position was not to support one more free trade agreement until the current ones were enforced, to ensure fairness (Robertson, Senate, 2004).
Burr acknowledged his record of supporting NAFTA when he ran for Congress in 1994, but tried to redirect the issue of NAFTA to China during the campaign. "I realized though [NAFTA] might have been beneficial to the whole country, it might not have been so beneficial to North Carolina. But you know what? I voted eight times against China," Burr said (Rice, Trade, 2004). Bowles also accused Burr of changing positions on the Central American and Vietnam trade agreements (Robertson, Senate, 2004).
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Created: 12/3/2004. Updated: 12/6/2004