Honor Code This site is part of an undergraduate assignment for a Political Science class (POL318).
The U.S. Senate race between Erskine Bowles (D) and U.S. Representative Richard Burr (R) to fill the seat of Democratic Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards is no doubt being affected by the other political campaigns taking place in NC this fall. This “on-year” (Burton, 2001, 33) includes a highly visible presidential race, gubernatorial race, and several competitive U.S. House races. These other competitive races can compel more candidates to run for other offices, compel more constituents to donate their money or time to campaigns, increase constituent awareness of more candidates and party platforms, and increase voter turnout. However they can also detract attention (valuable news coverage and ad space) and divert donations from the Senate race (Burton, 2001).
One likely affect of NC Senator John Edward’s place on the Democratic ticket will be higher voter turnout at the polls. It also creates new uncertainty as to whether these extra voters will go for President George W. Bush (R) or Senator John Kerry (D). In the past six presidential elections, NC has voted for the Republican presidential ticket. However this year, Edwards’ influence in the state has both parties' campaign professionals devoting more resources than usual to NC. The parties, combined with 527's and other independent organizations have spent $2.1 million, as of August 10, 2004, as compared to the total $.72 million spent in NC in 2000 (Cook, 2004).
After a highly competitive NC Republican primary with seven candidates, former state Senator Patrick Ballantine (R) has begun challenging the current Governor Michael Easely (D) for his position.
Easely won the 2000 general election with 52% of the vote over his opponent who grabbed 46% (NJ Gov., 2004). In the latest poll (August 13) by Research 2000, 51% preferred Easely over Ballantine (35%). Both the Easely and Ballantine campaigns have just this week released a set of television ads, the first in the campaign, which will likely balance voter name recognition. If a significant number of Democrats come out to defend and re-elect the well-known governor, this may give Senate candidate Bowles an extra partisan edge.
Out of the thirteen House races, the three biggest (most publicized) are the open-seat races in the 1st, 5th, and 10th Districts. Increased attention has certainly come to Burr's seat in District 5 (NJ House, 2004). However, the 8th and 13th districts could also influence the Senate election. If District 8, which "leans Republican," and District 13, which is "likely Democrat" (National Journal, 2004) come out in support of Democrats, they could draw votes for Bowles. On the other hand, citizens are generally less interested in House elections than most other elections (SB, 2001). Therefore, the likelihood that these races would draw more Democrats to vote is slim.
© 2004 Davidson College, Department of Political Science, Davidson, NC 28035
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Created: 8/30/2004. Last updated: 9/22/2004