This page is part of an undergraduate assignment at Davidson College.
Thomas A. Kazee identifies several “contexts” to the emergence of strong candidates, including eligibility, access, competition, resources, and structural realities (Kazee 1994). The quality candidate -- "one who has the skills and resources necessary to run a competitive campaign" (Maisal L. Sandy et al 2001) - maneuvers within these contexts governed by his ambition, and then makes a decision whether to run. According to these criteria, Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) briefly emerged as a strong candidate for US Senate.
Eligibility:
Son of the late AZ Congressman Morris (Ewegen 2004), Udall also sports a “likeable, outdoorsy image” that makes him a favorite among environmentalists and appealing to many Coloradans. In a testament to the effectiveness of this image, the Democratic candidate Ken Salazar now portays himself in similar fashion.
Access:
Initially Udall gained the favor of Democratic Party elites as he considered mounting a campaign against still-incumbant Sen. Ben “Nighthorse” Campbell (R-CO). Udall received encouragement from Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) and others (Farrel 2003). His presence at the DNC in July indicates his continued stature within the party (Sprengelmeyer 2004), but a spat with the DSCC before Salazar’s entry to the Senate race hurt his candidacy (“Senate 2004 ... ” 2003).
Competition:
Udall was considered the strongest candidate among the Democrats while Campbell remained in office and his House seat would have neutralized to some extent Campbell’s incumbent advantages. Campbell’s exit only improved the competitive context for Udall in the general election; however, pre-primary jockeying among Udall, software entrepreneur Rutt Bridges and Attorney General Ken Salazar pushed out the Congressman, presumably because Salazar's competitiveness would have forced a strenuous primary.
Resources:
Udall would have entered the Democratic primary with his House campaign account intact ($560,000). More important, however, would have been his Democratic Party access. Pollster Paul Talmey remarks, “You’re going to see a ton of money flowing into this state.” (Crummy 2004). Salazar could raise $2.5 million between March and June 2004 (Tankersley 2004). Still, these factors would not have guaranteed anything, as other candidates boasted huge personal fortunes.
Structural:
Udall’s 2nd Congressional District recently became even safer for him, already having re-elected him with 60% of the vote in 2002 (Morson 2004)(Paulson 2004).
Ambition:
The “structure of opportunity” in Colorado politics, however, dictates that this is not that opportunity, yet. Udall has the option of running for the Senate in 2008 (Kazee 1994). Taking this factor and the safety of his district into account, a Senate run carries a high opportunity cost (a safe seat) and limited benefits (running for this Senate seat now). Udall has the will and the prerequisites to "climb new mountains," and he eventually made a strategic decision to wait.
© Davidson College, 2004, Department of Political Science, Davidson College, Davidson, NC 28035
Send comments to Christopher Hallett (chhallett@davidson.edu)
Last updated: 9/22/2004.