Assignment #1
The Effect of Other Elections on the 2004 Florida Senate Race
Scholars have long understood that Senate races are influenced by simultaneous Presidential elections, but the means and strength of the effect have yet to be agreed upon. Intuitively and historically, party politics seem to encourage this trend. In a well-known example, Newt Gingrich encouraged and capitalized on this perception for the 1994 GOP Congressional sweep, linking all Republican candidates together on the “Contract with America.” (Gayner, 1995) In this year’s Republican National Convention, many local candidates praised Bush and the GOP for their past four years in office, and linked themselves to the party’s national activities (one example is Zell Miller, Senator from Georgia). ( Stevenson and Halbfinger, 2004)
Indeed, data have shown that perceived national trends have a strong aggregate effect on local and state elections. “In the early 1970s, election scholar Edward Tufte found that 98 percent of the variability of congressional elections could be explained by [economic trends and presidential popularity].” (Shea and Burton, 2001, 35) While this estimate seems quite high, the numbers speak volumes about the influence of the Commander-in-Chief on the political climate of elections all over the country. This has even led to a “strategic politicians hypothesis,” which holds that candidates strongly consider national trends when deciding to run for office.
For reasons both general to the country and specific to Florida, the election for Bob Graham’s seat in the US Senate is no exception to these findings. On controversial national issues like Medicare and immigration, the Florida electorate is affected significantly. With its huge elderly population, Medicare is a strong concern in Florida, and is closely linked to the President and his party. One of President Bush’s major proposed policy initiatives, announced at the GOP convention, is to privatize Medicare. The administration recently announced a large increase in Medicare premiums, giving fodder to Democrats all over the country. (Pear and Hulse, 2004) No doubt Betty Castor, the Democratic candidate, will use that to her advantage. Immigration from Latin America, a huge issue nationally, is at the heart of the Florida race, as Mel Martinez, the Republican candidate, is a Cuban-born immigrant. He is making a concerted effort to identify himself with President Bush, highlighting his membership in Bush’s cabinet over the past four years. Featured prominently on his website are pictures of him with President Bush (see http://www.melforsenate.org/), and he delivered a speech at the Republican National Convention in which he lauded Bush for the administration’s achievements and touted his own role in the process (Clark and Davies, 2004). Tying his fate to Bush's politics is a politically risky move, as Castor could use anti-Bush sentiment to her advantage. We'll see if it turns out to be a smart strategy when the final results come in.
Chris Pratt-Dannals
Davidson College ‘05