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U.S. SENATE RACE 2004 - NORTH CAROLINA

The Outcome

Why Burr?

On November 2nd, Richard Burr defeated Erskine Bowles 52% to 47%. The last poll before the election showed a 46% tie, suggesting that Burr's 5% margin was larger than most expected. What were the causes of such a momentous victory? Does the consistency or lack of consistency in both campaigns shed light on the outcome?

Post-election Analysis:

• Charlotte Observer
  • "Burr benefited from coattails in a state Bush won...Burr won nine out of 10 Bush voters."
  • Bowles' breast cancer ad the 'most crucial mistake.
• Washington Post
  • "Voters did not connect with [Bowles'] diffident style."
  • Burr's ads linking Bowles to Clinton, hurt Bowles: "Clinton...is not popular in rural North Carolina.
• AP
  • "The top issue in the race was the economy and jobs...[Bowles took] six out of 10 of the votes from those placing the greatest premium on the problem.... Health care was next, and Bowles again held a clear advantage with voters."

Clear Positions and Principles?

Each candidate remained consistent on jobs, Burr focusing on taxes and China, emphasizing the Clinton/Bowles free trade era, Bowles glued to his plan for job creation. The Charlotte Observer provided the most compelling post-election analysis, stating that Bowles' success in the top two issues means voters focused on more than just issue positions. In 2004, Americans voted on social values, not as an issue, but as an ambigously guiding principle. The decision to unleash an ad directly attacking Burr's breast cancer record hurt Bowles. Less convincing is the Washington Post's argument. It is not clear that either candidates' personality influenced the outcome to a significant degree. The deciding factor was the perception each candidate employed do drive his issue positions.

Burr's message remained consistently Republican throughout the race. Contrastingly, Bowles attempted to create an image independent of Clinton and partisan politics. Joe Trippi, Howard Dean's campaign manager, describes the national phenomenon of Democratic losses in 2004. "Since the Democratic Leadership Council, with its mantra of "moderate, moderate, moderate," took hold in D.C., the party has been in decline in just about every level of government." (WSJ A18) Bowles may have been an example of this phenomena in North Carolina. His attempt to gain support as a collegial peacemaker and a centrist may have deemphasized his base. His strategic attempt to purge the campaign of negative advertising, ironically hurt him. After Burr refused to accept his offer , Bowles' began attacking. The reordering of his strategy in contrast to Burr's consistency may have been a factor of the outcome. Predominantly though, Burr's ability to tie himself tightly to Bush, who is highly popular in the region, maintain a consistent message with the Republican party provided him with healthily increasing support and the victory. Conversely, Bowles' inconsistencies were not effective enough to gain 50% + 1.

Bibliography

Correspondence to: Charles Wood

Created: 5 December 2004