This page is part of an undergraduate assignment at Davidson College.
Outcome of the South Dakota Senate Race
Why Thune Won
Many pundits suggested they knew exactly why Thune defeated Daschle on election night, but some of these explanations seem more likely than others.
One suggestion as to how Thune won was that moral values were the most important issues for many voters, and Thune’s views on moral issues were more in line with South Dakotans than were Daschle’s views. Exit polls showed 25% of voters said moral values were the most important issues. Of that group, 81% voted for Thune, suggesting that he won the values debate. This evidence suggests that this is a compelling explanation as to why Thune won.
A less compelling explanation was offered by Dakota State University government professor Jon Lauck who suggested that one reason Thune won was because Daschle was unable to mobilize his base as well as Thune. Lauck says that some fiscal Democrats didn’t vote for Daschle due to cultural issues, while core Democrats were turned off by a Daschle ad in which he showed himself hugging Bush. However, exit polls suggest that Daschle actually did better among Democrats than Thune did among Republicans. Daschle captured 90% of Democratic votes, while Thune carried only 82% of Republicans. By comparison, nationwide Kerry carried 89% of Democrats and Bush 93% of Republicans. These polls show that Daschle actually did very well among Democrats making this explanation unconvincing.
Were Values Compromised?
In order to determine whether or not a candidate compromised their values we will use the standard of whether or not each candidate was consistent in their positions, or whether or not they changed their positions in order to pander to voters.
Thune was very consistent in his message. For instance, on abortion Thune consistently said he believes abortion is wrong, and he has consistently voted to protect the rights of the unborn (Johnthune.com 2004). Similarly, on Iraq, Thune has consistently supported the war. With many South Dakotans questioning the war in Iraq, Thune might have felt pressure to change his position and criticize the administration (Brokaw 2004). However, Thune did not change his position, and therefore did not compromise his principles in order to win.
Daschle was not as consistent in his message. In order to appease the 63% of South Dakotans who disapprove of abortion, Daschle has said on the campaign trail that he personally opposes abortion, but he has voted consistently with the pro-choice position in Washington (cathfam.org 2003). On Iraq Daschle has also been inconsistent. At first he praised President Bush's handling of the war when most voters supported it, but as public opinion changed Daschle became more critical (Ross 2004). By changing his positions according to what public sentiments were, Daschle may have compromised his principles on these issues. These changes may have hurt Daschle as voters saw him a flip-flopper.
Created by David Crow
Pol 318
Created: 12/6/2004. Last updated: 12/6/2004.