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With John Edwards' announcement that he would leave his seat in the Senate to run for Vice President, speculation arose regarding who would take his place. Potential candidates for Senate or any office must consider a variety of issues regarding their decision to run to evaluate their chances of success. The context of the race and their own motivations guide candidates in making their choice. Using this framework, an examination of the potential candidacy of Frank Ballance reveals that despite plenty of ambition, experience and available political capital, he would not win the seat.
Ballance certainly has the ambition and experience to run, however. A lawyer by trade, he spent 4 years in the North Carolina House and 14 in the Senate before his election to the United States House in 2002 (www.newsobserver.com). He also has experience behind the scenes, working as Eva Clayton’s campaign manager twice (National Journal). Nevertheless, he would face an unfavorable political environment. A liberal Democrat, he would be running in a state that voted for Bush in 2000 and is leaning that way again in 2004. N.C. also elected Republican Elizabeth Dole to its other Senate seat in 2002. As an African-American, Ballance would not see the same success state-wide as he did in the majority black 1st district.
There are also several question marks surrounding Ballance's chances for election: Would he be able to raise enough money? Does he have enough name recognition outside of his district? Will his declining health prevent him from campaigning effectively? His biggest problem, however, is his involvement in a scandal over a drug rehabilitation program that he helped found. The John Hyman Foundation "held classes two nights a week for drug addicts and drunken driving offenders" (Mooneyham). Ballance was able to win over $2 million of state funds for the charity during his time in the state Senate (www.newsobserver.com). A federal investigation revealed that he may be responsible for the misappropriation of over $100,000 and he has been "charged with conspiracy to commit mail fraud and money laundering" (www.newsobserver.com).
A few of the influences for and against Ballance running for Senate:
For
-Close ties to Eva Clayton, the popular N.C. Congresswoman he replaced
-Experience as a member of the N.C. General Assembly and as Clayton's campaign manager
-He has won endorsements and awards from the AFL-CIO, the North Carolina Academy of Trial Lawyers, and the ACLU, to name a few (www.ballance.house.gov)
Against
-Too liberal for state-wide election
-State trends are against him
-Suffers from poor health, including myasthenia gravis (www.newsobserver.com)
-Currently embroiled in a scandal regarding the Hyman Foundation
Although Ballance seems to be a strong candidate, he could not overcome his history as a liberal, the state's trend toward Republicans, and his involvement in the Hyman Foundation scandal.
Created: 9-22-04
Davidson College
Politics 318