Introduction

The Alaskan Senate race is extremely close with the incumbent, Murkowski (R) battling a strong candidate Knowles (D), the eventual outcome may depend on something like an endorsement from a powerful party member. Other races that may affect this contest are the Presidential election and the election for Alaska's only House seat.

Presidential Race

The Presidenl along with his closest peers will likely have the biggest effect on the outcome of this election. Alaska is a largely Republican state that Bush carried with a 59%-28% margin over Gore. Since his election, Lisa Murkowski has received Bush's support in her campaign (National Journal, 2004). Additionally, she has had Vice President Cheaney and Treasury Secretary John Snow (CNN.com, 2004) endorse her campaign. She agrees with the President's spending on national defense and security, another indirect tie to the president trying to use his influence in her election campaign(CQ.com, 2004).

Another possible source of influence from a Presidential campaign is Tony Knowles' disagreement with Democratic hopeful, John Kerry on a key issue to Alaskans, drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Knowles is an outspoken proponent of drilling in the ANWR. Kerry has been "one of the Senate's most vocal foes of ANWR (National Journal, 2004). This will likely help Knowles in the election because it demonstrates that he is not a hard-line democrat, something that would guarantee his loss in Alaska, where registered Republican's outnumber Democrats, 2-1.

House of Representatives Race

Alaska has only one Representative in the house, Don Young. He has been in office since 1973 when he was elected in an odd-year election because the representative at the time died in a plane crash. Since 1992 he has had little opposition for re-election. In his two most recent elections he has won by margins of 75%-17% and 70%-17%, even carrying the less-developed, Democratic regions of the state (National Journal, 2004).

Young, as well as both candidates, agrees with drilling in the ANWR. Young along with the party supports Murkowski, a good endorsement considering his record. His universal appeal to all demographics in Alaska is an important resource that Murkowski should attempt to tap into, with strong backing from Young it may boost her in the polls as she currently trails by about 1% (National Journal, 2004).

Conclusions

This election seems to lie in the face of the "coattail" effect that Shea and Burton talk about in the context of other races. With the combination of a dominantly Republican state and a Republican president this theory suggests that Murkowski should be easily elected. However, this is not the case as Democrats have put forth a strong candidate. Thus far, the race has been determined by issues other than candidates in other races, but a last minute endorsement from Bush, Kerry or Young may prove the difference in this tight race.

Works Cited

Page Created by Jamie McCord for, POL 318, at Davidson College.