This page is part of an undergraduate assignment at Davidson College
Introduction
While there are certainly other economic and social factors that will affect the upcoming election, issues surrounding the oil industry and the increasingly estranged rural/native population will, in my opinion, most significantly contribute to the outcome of the race.
The Oil Industry
Even though both candidates favor drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, the matter is still pivotal to the race. Knowles is a Democrat and, unfortunately for Knowles, Democratic Senators blocked the first ANWR bill and won the disdain of many Alaskans for doing so (BBC News 2003). Consequently, Knowles must convince oilmen that he really is pro-business and that he would be better suited than his Republican counterpart to represent oil interests in Washington. Many of Knowles' ads are aimed at the oil industry (click here for commercial ad). At the same time, Murkowski must convince Alaskan oilmen to keep their traditional Republican allegiance.
Even though only 8,800 Alaskans work directly for oil, most Alaskans view the success of oil as vital to Alaskan prosperity (Cannon and Hadland 2004). The industry provides 80% of state revenue, enough to make state income and sales taxes unnecessary (Dunphy 2004). In short, the winner of the oil sweepstakes just might win the election.
Rural Society and Alaskan Natives
The split between urban and rural society is perhaps the most dominant Alaskan socioeconomic characteristic, and it is one that will figure prominently in the race. Rural citizens often complain about rural education, public safety, and their overall representation in the government (Brelsford 2000). Rural workers, especially loggers and fisherman, have been struggling for work in recent years (Bradner 2003). Among these rural Alaskans are the natives. Natives, who make up 16% of the population, have increasingly clamored for more rights alongside the rural citizens ("Information About..." 2000).
Most rural Alaskans are inclined to support Knowles because of his record as governor. As Knowles flaunts on his web site, he received the Denali Award (the highest award given to a non-native) for his pro-native efforts as governor (Knowles 2004). If Murkowski is to convince some of these voters to abandon Knowles, she must continue to emphasize the pro-rural policies she supported during her short term, such as her initiative to allow rural priority for subsistence hunting and improve Alaska native employment (National Journal 2003). One of her TV ads claims that "she hears what rural Alaskans are saying, because she's traveled all of our state listening to us" (Glazer 2004).
Conclusion
Just as Knowles has to convince traditionally Republican oil interest groups to support his campaign, Murkowski must convince some of the traditionally Democratic/pro-Knowles rural citizens to cross the party line. Whoever achieves the most cross-over will likely win the election.
Mac Skelton, PO Box 6375, Davidson, N.C. 28035
Created 9/9/04, last updated: 9/10/04