This page is an assignment at Davidson College.
Evaluating the 2004 NC Senate Race
Ward Long
Why Did Burr Win?
On November 2nd, Richard Burr defeated Erskine Bowles for North Carolina’s open Senate Seat by nearly five percentage points. Bowles held a solid ten-point lead through most of the summer, and media outlets scrambled to explain the stunning comeback victory. Burr and some media outlests credited his compelling home-style, or the recent tobacco buyout (Baxter, Hartsoe). While innumerable factors contribute to election results, an careful examination of the candidates' message strategies explains much of the campaign.
Enjoying an early lead in name recognition after his unsuccessful 2002 Senate run, Bowles’ early message focused on local economic problems, casting himself as an independent-minded business-man that understood North Carolina. While his early lead and fundraising efforts gave him power to shape the race to come, Bowles failed to define Burr, set the terms of debate, or anticipate Burr’s message strategy. Recognizing Bowles’ strength on policy, Burr worked to emphasize ideological differences in the race. The Burr campaign brought members of the Administration to campaign events, and Senator Elisabeth Dole fought hard for Burr. In relentless attack ads, the Burr campaign showed Bowles with former President Clinton, undercutting Bowles' theme of political independence. Burr also attacked another of Bowles' strengths, undercutting his business credibility with accusations that he negotiated trade deals with China that hurt U.S. workers.
In a desperation move, Bowles counter-attacked in the last ten days of the campaign, questioning Burr's record on breast cancer research. Burr's answered with ads featuring his sister Debby May, a breast cancer survior. Burr's response cast Bowles as a ruthless politician, and helped Burr's image. A Burr campaign consultant claimed “that the ads featuring Burr’s sister raised favorable ratings among voters by eight percentage points in three days" (Rice). In summary, Burr won the race because he countered every point of Bowles' message, and shifted the race to move favorable terms, from economic issues to political ideology.
What About Ethics and Principles
In the breast cancer attack ads, Erskine Bowles truthfully highlighted aspects of Burr's record. However the implications of the ads were unclear: Was Bowles suggesting that Burr actually supported breast cancer? In the absence of a clear message, voters accurately concluded that the ads were merely desperate negative advertising. The Bowles attacks were incredibly stupid, not but unethical.
However, the Burr campaign worked to deliberately misinform the public on trade issues. Although an important member of the Clinton Administration, Bowles did not negotiate trade agreements with China ("Nothing"). Both Burr and Bowles supported free trade in the early 1990s, and both swtiched postions after seeing the damage it brought to North Carolina.
Honor Pledge: This assignment represents my orignial work and follows the guidelines of the Davidson College Honor Code.
Contact: Ward Long.
December 6, 2004.